Unless Dick Morris is right, Mitt Romney faces a daunting task in achieving an absolute win on Tuesday. Why do I say absolute? Because a win is not enough for Romney or the GOP field in House and Senate races.
The 2008 elections gave us a new Democratic Party, or rather, I should say, a new tactic within the party. I’ll call it the Al Franken dynamic.
Winning is no longer enough for Republicans; they now must win by wide enough margins to make contesting the races futile. Or at least not cost effective.
No doubt whoever was running Minnesota Senator Al Franken’s race came up with the idea of stealing his senate race against incumbent Norm Coleman from the 2000 Gore campaign. In a narrow loss situation contest, contest, contest! Sue. Litigate. Challenge ballots heretofore thought unchallengeable, and rely on liberal judges and secretaries of state to rule with the liberal.
It almost worked with Gore and did work for Franken who unquestionably stole his election. Coleman, fine Republican that he is, decided to walk away. Fine but square.
Regular Right Guy has always said that the biggest GOP deficit is that the party leadership is unhip. In the 1950s they would have been called square. Today they are simply archaic.
Karl Rove is a case in point. Rove, a brilliant statistician and at least until now campaign strategist, was a self-described nerd from early childhood, right down to his pocket protector. He is also an establishment Republican.
In the aftermath of the 2010 midterm the establishment wing of the GOP — they are the powerbase of the party — wristed control of the tea party led revolution and dragged the conservative party base kicking a screaming to the middle. Thus Mitt Romney.
It may work this time, and I sincerely pray that it does. You Catholics out there do a few extra laps around the beads.
But, if Romney does win, it will not be a revolutionary win. And it will most likely be within contestable margins in many states. To quote the Bard, There’s the rub.
In this scenario the Democrats do what they do best: go to ground and, with the help of a corrupt media, rely on subterfuge and smoke and mirrors to create from whole cloth an ‘overlooked’ electorate. Voting machines will be rigged. ‘Lost’ ballots will pop up. ‘Voter suppression’ will be discovered. In short, a case will be built to litigate the election.
This time nationwide.
In a prefect world Mitt Romney would have a comfortable lead against Barack Obama today. But mistakes have been made. For one thing he accepted the wide-held corrupt media meme that Americans will not vote Benghazi.
It was a remarkable mistake. It was up to Romney to define Benghazi briefly and succinctly and let Obama continue to lie publically. The evidence is overwhelming that the President not only lied but that he created the situation that got an ambassador and three other Americans killed.
Properly framed that message would not have distracted from Romney’s drive on the economy and jobs. Now Obama has new jobs numbers — almost unquestionably manipulated — and a full weekend media cycle in which to tout his successes.
We will see little Romney-Ryan in the media this weekend.
Republican strategists and talking heads have all along drummed the ‘close election’ mantra, almost as though it were a badge of honor. Understandable, they don’t want to raise expectations to the point of apathy.
But the election should not be close. Romney should have a comfortable lead.
I hope Dick Morris is right about Romney but I tend to believe that Rasmussen is right. Nobody knows who will win on Tuesday.
And that will quite possibly translate to an Obama win.